Health outcomes, such as body mass index and cholesterol levels, are known to be dependent on age and exhibit varying effects with their associated risk factors. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for dynamic modeling of the associations between health outcomes and risk factors using varying-coefficients (VC) regional quantile regression via K-nearest neighbors (KNN) fused Lasso, which captures the time-varying effects of age. The proposed method has strong theoretical properties, including a tight estimation error bound and the ability to detect exact clustered patterns under certain regularity conditions. To efficiently solve the resulting optimization problem, we develop an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. Our empirical results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in capturing the complex age-dependent associations between health outcomes and their risk factors.

To estimate the changing structure of a varying-coefficient varying-structure (VCVS) model remains an important and open problem in dynamic system modelling, which includes learning trajectories of stock prices, or uncovering the topology of an evolving gene network. In this paper, we investigate sparsistent learning of a sub-family of this model --- piecewise constant VCVS models. We analyze two main issues in this problem: inferring time points where structural changes occur and estimating model structure (i.e., model selection) on each of the constant segments. We propose a two-stage adaptive procedure, which first identifies jump points of structural changes and then identifies relevant covariates to a response on each of the segments. We provide an asymptotic analysis of the procedure, showing that with the increasing sample size, number of structural changes, and number of variables, the true model can be consistently selected.

To estimate the changing structure of a varying-coefficient varying-structure (VCVS) model remains an important and open problem in dynamic system modelling, which includes learning trajectories of stock prices, or uncovering the topology of an evolving gene network. In this paper, we investigate sparsistent learning of a sub-family of this model --- piecewise constant VCVS models. We analyze two main issues in this problem: inferring time points where structural changes occur and estimating model structure (i.e., model selection) on each of the constant segments. We propose a two-stage adaptive procedure, which first identifies jump points of structural changes and then identifies relevant covariates to a response on each of the segments. We provide an asymptotic analysis of the procedure, showing that with the increasing sample size, number of structural changes, and number of variables, the true model can be consistently selected.

We study learning problems in which the conditional distribution of the output given the input varies as a function of additional task variables. In varying-coefficient models with Gaussian process priors, a Gaussian process generates the functional relationship between the task variables and the parameters of this conditional. Varying-coefficient models subsume hierarchical Bayesian multitask models, but also generalizations in which the conditional varies continuously, for instance, in time or space. However, Bayesian inference in varying-coefficient models is generally intractable. We show that inference for varying-coefficient models with isotropic Gaussian process priors resolves to standard inference for a Gaussian process that can be solved efficiently. MAP inference in this model resolves to multitask learning using task and instance kernels, and inference for hierarchical Bayesian multitask models can be carried out efficiently using graph-Laplacian kernels. We report on experiments for geospatial prediction.

To estimate the changing structure of a varying-coefficient varying-structure (VCVS) model remains an important and open problem in dynamic system modelling, which includes learning trajectories of stock prices, or uncovering the topology of an evolving gene network. In this paper, we investigate sparsistent learning of a sub-family of this model --- piecewise constant VCVS models. We analyze two main issues in this problem: inferring time points where structural changes occur and estimating model structure (i.e., model selection) on each of the constant segments. We propose a two-stage adaptive procedure, which first identifies jump points of structural changes and then identifies relevant covariates to a response on each of the segments. We provide an asymptotic analysis of the procedure, showing that with the increasing sample size, number of structural changes, and number of variables, the true model can be consistently selected. We demonstrate the performance of the method on synthetic data and apply it to the brain computer interface dataset. We also consider how this applies to structure estimation of time-varying probabilistic graphical models.